Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alaves at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Celta Vigo.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Alaves and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 January 2025 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Alaves have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Celta Vigo have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Celta Vigo's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Celta Vigo and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2024, ended Alaves 1–2 Celta Vigo — a Celta Vigo win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 45% versus Celta Vigo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 40% | Celta Vigo 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alaves surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Celta Vigo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.48 xG and Celta Vigo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.799 / defence 0.978 | Celta Vigo attack 0.909 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.171. Alaves's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. Celta Vigo's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Alaves's last 58 games and Celta Vigo's last 58.

Result probabilities: Alaves 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.12 | Draw 3.83 | Celta Vigo 3.76. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 away games).

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