Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Championship Group - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ulsan Hyundai FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Jeonbuk Motors have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
It is worth noting that Jeonbuk Motors have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.271 / defence 1.103 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.854 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.328. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Jeonbuk Motors lead the H2H ledger, but Ulsan Hyundai FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 90% | Jeonbuk Motors 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Championship Group - 37 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.271 / def 1.103 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.854 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is scheduled to kick off at 05:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Championship Group - 37 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (10 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 6W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.17
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.25 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 27W 17D 28L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 35W 23D 14L across 72 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ulsan Hyundai FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 16W 7D 12L from 35 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 15W 14D 6L across 35 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.49 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 27W 17D 28L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 23D 14L in their last 72 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Jeonbuk Motors 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 29% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 46%; Jeonbuk Motors in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 29% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.