Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 March 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.61 xG and Jeju United FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.603 / defence 1.030 | Jeju United FC attack 0.715 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.003. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.603 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 4 Jeju United FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Mar 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.61 / Jeju United FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.603 / def 1.030 | Jeju United FC attack 0.715 / def 1.025 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Jeju United FC xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 16 March 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 57% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.60x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.71x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
57%
1.76
28%
3.61
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.74
Jeju United FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
32.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.74 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 0-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.61 xG and Jeju United FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.60 / defence 1.03 against Jeju United FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 16%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.