Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 PPG, FC Seoul 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 1, FC Seoul 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% and FC Seoul 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% | FC Seoul 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and FC Seoul 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.175 / defence 0.890 | FC Seoul attack 1.348 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.159. FC Seoul have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 55 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | FC Seoul 3.23. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | FC Seoul 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 / FC Seoul 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.175 / def 0.890 | FC Seoul attack 1.348 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Seoul xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Record (3 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 2 | FC Seoul 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.18) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.28
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.39
FC Seoul xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.39 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.42 PPG from 60 outings (22W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 20W 7D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (10W 11D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.67 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Seoul in 63%.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.23 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, FC Seoul 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (FC Seoul). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 67% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 53% of FC Seoul's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Seoul 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and FC Seoul 1.39 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against FC Seoul attack 1.35 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, FC Seoul 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Seoul's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.