Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 April 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 2.40 PPG versus Daejeon Citizen's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Daejeon Citizen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Daejeon Citizen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.824 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.447 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.082. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 39 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 41%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Daejeon Citizen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 / Daejeon Citizen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / def 0.824 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.447 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Daejeon Citizen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (5 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.62
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.29
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.29 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 44W 16D 16L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 24W 27D 25L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daejeon Citizen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.32 PPG from 38 outings (27W 7D 4L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 8W 16D 14L from 38 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.30 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 61%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 games (1.95 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
5
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (Daejeon Citizen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 53% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.45 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 41%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Daejeon Citizen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.