Suwon City FC 0-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 March 2021, 10:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.22 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.950 / defence 1.150 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 0.851. Data: 2 Suwon City FC games / 2 Suwon Bluewings games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 45% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 25%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon Bluewings 4.00. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Mar 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 45% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Suwon City FC 1.22 / Suwon Bluewings 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.950 / def 1.150 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.121 / away 0.851 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Suwon Bluewings xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 10 March 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC 0 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 45% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.39
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.06
0.83
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.83 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Suwon City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 3, as Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.22 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.83 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 45% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 25%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.