Suwon City FC 3-4 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Relegation Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Suwon Sports Complex this season.
FC Seoul have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Suwon City FC, 1.30 for FC Seoul — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Seoul in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus FC Seoul 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 61% | FC Seoul 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.33 xG and FC Seoul 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.010 / defence 1.338 | FC Seoul attack 1.181 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 66 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 24% | FC Seoul 48%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | FC Seoul 2.08. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 60% | FC Seoul 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 24% | FC Seoul 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Suwon City FC 1.33 / FC Seoul 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.010 / def 1.338 | FC Seoul attack 1.181 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.79
FC Seoul xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 3 - 4 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 28% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.18x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
28%
3.54
24%
4.15
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.79
FC Seoul xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.79 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 21W 17D 34L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 24W 24D 24L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.33 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 11W 12D 12L from 35 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.39 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 21W 17D 34L in their last 72 games (1.11 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 24W 24D 24L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 69%, FC Seoul 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Suwon City FC) and 40% (FC Seoul).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon City FC's games and 57% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 40% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Suwon City FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 3-4 at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.33 xG and FC Seoul 1.79 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.34 against FC Seoul attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 24% | FC Seoul 48%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 61%, FC Seoul 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG, FC Seoul 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.