Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 40%, yet in-form Suwon Bluewings provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Suwon Bluewings's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Jeju United FC's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon Bluewings 57% and Jeju United FC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 57% | Jeju United FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG and Jeju United FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.025 / defence 1.213 | Jeju United FC attack 0.852 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.283. Data: 22 Suwon Bluewings games / 21 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Jeju United FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suwon Bluewings (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 80% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.10 / Jeju United FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.025 / def 1.213 | Jeju United FC attack 0.852 / def 1.139 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 30% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.85x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.32
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.43
1.33
Jeju United FC xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.74
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.33 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 6D 7L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (4W 11D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.10 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (1W 7D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 71%.
Last 21 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 4W 11D 6L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Jeju United FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.20 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeju United FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
7
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Jeju United FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Suwon Bluewings, 50% for Jeju United FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Suwon Bluewings) and 40% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 50%; Jeju United FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 40% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Suwon Bluewings's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Suwon Bluewings and Jeju United FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG and Jeju United FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jeju United FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Jeju United FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 30% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 40%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 57%, Jeju United FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.43 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.