Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Seongnam FC to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 June 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Seongnam FC's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, Seongnam FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.754 / defence 1.047 | Seongnam FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.148. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 49 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Seongnam FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Seongnam FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jun 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 / Seongnam FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.754 / def 1.047 | Seongnam FC attack 0.836 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 Seongnam FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 32% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Seongnam FC away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.75x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.18
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
1.93
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.00 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Seongnam FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG and Seongnam FC 1.00 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Seongnam FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 36%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.