Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Gwangju FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Gimcheon Stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gwangju FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.60 (Gwangju FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for Gwangju FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% versus Gwangju FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Gwangju FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG and Gwangju FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.055 / defence 0.932 | Gwangju FC attack 0.807 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.265. Data: 36 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 36 Gwangju FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 37% | Gwangju FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Gwangju FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Gwangju FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 37% | Gwangju FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 / Gwangju FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.055 / def 0.932 | Gwangju FC attack 0.807 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Gwangju FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 38% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (6 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 2 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.05) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
38%
2.64
37%
2.69
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.95
Gwangju FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.95 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 76 games, going 36W 16D 24L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 76 outings (29W 14D 33L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.63 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 20W 7D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.16 points per game from 37 outings (12W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 29W 14D 33L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%, Gwangju FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 38% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 40% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 38% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC finished level at 1-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG and Gwangju FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Gwangju FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 37% | Gwangju FC 25%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Gwangju FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.