Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38%, yet in-form FC Seoul provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Seoul's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Seoul away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Seoul are 0.80 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Seoul in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1 for FC Seoul and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 1–5 with FC Seoul winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
FC Seoul goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% and FC Seoul 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | FC Seoul 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG and FC Seoul 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.928 / defence 0.952 | FC Seoul attack 1.076 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.233. Data: 14 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 47 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 35%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | FC Seoul 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Seoul (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | FC Seoul 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 / FC Seoul 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.928 / def 0.952 | FC Seoul attack 1.076 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Seoul xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 28 May 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 38% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 0 | FC Seoul 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.93) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.08x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 14/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.78
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.26
FC Seoul xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.26 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 14D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (15W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
FC Seoul carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Seoul in 62%.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 15W 13D 12L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 5-1 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, FC Seoul 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (FC Seoul).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 65% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul finished level at 0-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG and FC Seoul 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Seoul landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against FC Seoul attack 1.08 / defence 0.99, drawn from 14/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 35%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, FC Seoul 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Seoul arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.