Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Championship Group - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Daejeon Citizen are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W, Daejeon Citizen 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% versus Daejeon Citizen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49% | Daejeon Citizen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.187 / defence 0.870 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.069 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.226. Data: 66 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 66 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 4.17. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Championship Group - 38 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 / Daejeon Citizen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.187 / def 0.870 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.069 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Daejeon Citizen xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Championship Group - 38 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 50% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (7 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 3 | Daejeon Citizen 3W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.07x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.92
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.14
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
4%
22.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.14 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 36W 16D 23L from 75 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 29W 23D 23L across 75 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.47 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 21W 7D 9L from 37 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 11W 13D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.31 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 60%.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 23L in their last 75 games (1.65 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 29W 23D 23L in their last 75 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-4 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 60% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 60% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Championship Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Daejeon Citizen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.65 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.