Pohang Steelers 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 50%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 May 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Steelyard Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daegu FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Daegu FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 42% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.61 xG and Daegu FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.055 / defence 0.900 | Daegu FC attack 0.909 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.232. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Pohang Steelers games / 42 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 4.55. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Daegu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.61 / Daegu FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.055 / def 0.900 | Daegu FC attack 0.909 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Daegu FC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 50% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.05) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.56
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.62
1.01
Daegu FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
4%
22.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.01 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 10D 16L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.21 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 5W 5D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daegu FC away?
Daegu FC's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.05 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 47%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pohang Steelers) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 32% of games; Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.61 xG and Daegu FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 22%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 42%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.21 PPG, Daegu FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.