Jeju United FC 2-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Jeju United FC take on Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeju United FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 11 April 2021 at 08:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.67 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.874 / defence 0.994 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.819 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.013. Suwon Bluewings's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Jeju United FC games / 8 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 43% | Suwon Bluewings 33%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 4.17 | Draw 2.33 | Suwon Bluewings 3.03. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Jeju United FC's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.50 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 43% | Suwon Bluewings 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 31% | xG Jeju United FC 0.67 / Suwon Bluewings 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.874 / def 0.994 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.819 / def 0.789 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Suwon Bluewings xG
31%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 08:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC 2 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 24% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 33% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.82x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.15
43%
2.33
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.50
0.82
Suwon Bluewings xG
4.15
24%
Home win
2.33
43%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.4 | 18.4 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.82 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeju United FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.67 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.82 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 43% | Suwon Bluewings 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.