Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeju United FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeju United FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Suwon Bluewings are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Suwon Bluewings in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jeju United FC lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 58% versus Suwon Bluewings 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 58% | Suwon Bluewings 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.56 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.954 / defence 1.091 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.884 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Jeju United FC games / 66 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 26%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon Bluewings 3.85. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Jeju United FC dominate the H2H record, yet Suwon Bluewings are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suwon Bluewings (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Suwon Bluewings 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeju United FC 1.56 / Suwon Bluewings 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.954 / def 1.091 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.884 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Suwon Bluewings xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC 2 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 48% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (7 meetings): Jeju United FC 4W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.88x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.80
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.09 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 23W 18D 30L from 71 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 35L across 71 games — 0.99 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Jeju United FC against 0.99 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 9W 13D 12L from 34 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 8W 9D 17L across 34 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 23W 18D 30L in their last 71 games (1.23 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 17W 19D 35L in their last 71 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.18 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeju United FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 62%, Suwon Bluewings 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Jeju United FC) and 56% (Suwon Bluewings). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jeju United FC's games and 62% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Jeju United FC's matches and 56% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.56 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 26%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 58%, Suwon Bluewings 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.23 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.