Jeju United FC 0-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC at Jeju World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeju United FC 1.70 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 60% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 50% | Gangwon FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.02 xG and Gangwon FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.922 / defence 1.282 | Gangwon FC attack 0.971 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.063. Data: 34 Jeju United FC games / 34 Gangwon FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Gangwon FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 60% | Gangwon FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Jeju United FC 1.02 / Gangwon FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.922 / def 1.282 | Gangwon FC attack 0.971 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Gangwon FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 29% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.92) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.61
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.32
Gangwon FC xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.32 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 16D 10L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (11W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.37 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeju United FC's home form reads 7W 6D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Jeju United FC
7
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 0, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 72%, Gangwon FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeju United FC) and 39% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Jeju United FC's games and 50% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 39% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.02 xG and Gangwon FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.28 against Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 44%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 50%, Gangwon FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.