Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gangwon FC (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeju United FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC at Jeju World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gangwon FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Gangwon FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Jeju United FC.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Gangwon FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 52% versus Gangwon FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jeju United FC 39% | Gangwon FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.71 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.878 | Gangwon FC attack 0.898 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.225. Gangwon FC's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Jeju United FC games / 51 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Gangwon FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Jeju United FC's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 50% | Gangwon FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Jeju United FC 0.71 / Gangwon FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.935 / def 0.878 | Gangwon FC attack 0.898 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 24% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (9 meetings): Jeju United FC 0W | Draws 6 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.94) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
24%
4.14
37%
2.67
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.67
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
4.14
24%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 18.1 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.96 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 14D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.48 PPG from 56 outings (21W 20D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.16 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeju United FC's home form reads 9W 7D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.48 points per game from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Gangwon FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 21W 20D 15L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gangwon FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Jeju United FC
7
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 0, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 48%, Gangwon FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jeju United FC) and 33% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 44%; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Gangwon FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 33% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 33% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.71 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.72, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 38%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 39%, Gangwon FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.16 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.