Incheon United 1-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Suwon Bluewings (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Incheon United, 1.00 for Suwon Bluewings — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Incheon United have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Suwon Bluewings in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Incheon United 1W, Suwon Bluewings 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus Suwon Bluewings 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.04 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.903 / defence 0.947 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.997 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Data: 33 Incheon United games / 33 Suwon Bluewings games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 34% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 37%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon Bluewings 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | Suwon Bluewings 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 34% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Incheon United 1.04 / Suwon Bluewings 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.903 / def 0.947 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.997 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United 1 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 34% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (3 meetings): Incheon United 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.90x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (1.00x) against Incheon United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.14
1.10
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.10 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Incheon United come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 11D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Suwon Bluewings sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (12W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Incheon United against 1.21 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Incheon United's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon Bluewings have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Incheon United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Incheon United 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 32% (Incheon United) and 32% (Suwon Bluewings) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Incheon United and 42% for Suwon Bluewings.
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 32% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Incheon United defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.04 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.10 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Suwon Bluewings attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 34% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 37%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Incheon United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.24 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.