Incheon United 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park.
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Incheon United. A 0.70 PPG lead over Daegu FC (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 54% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.01 xG and Daegu FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.784 / defence 0.882 | Daegu FC attack 0.825 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.114. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Incheon United games / 24 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 39% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Daegu FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 40% | Daegu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 39% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Incheon United 1.01 / Daegu FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.784 / def 0.882 | Daegu FC attack 0.825 / def 1.293 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Daegu FC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Daegu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Incheon United 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daegu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Incheon United and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.78) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.82x) against Incheon United's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
39%
2.55
32%
3.09
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.82
0.81
Daegu FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.81 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Incheon United come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 6D 9L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Incheon United against 1.42 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Incheon United's home form reads 5W 5D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daegu FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.67 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Incheon United
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 42%, Daegu FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Incheon United) and 58% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Incheon United's recent matches and 58% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Incheon United's recent games and 58% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.01 xG and Daegu FC 0.81 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.78 / defence 0.88 against Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 39% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 28%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 54%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.38 PPG, Daegu FC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.