Incheon United 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Incheon United against 1.50 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Incheon United lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.37 xG and Daegu FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.795 / defence 0.891 | Daegu FC attack 0.962 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.151. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Incheon United games / 39 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 44% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 50% | Daegu FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 44% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Incheon United 1.37 / Daegu FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.795 / def 0.891 | Daegu FC attack 0.962 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Daegu FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Daegu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Incheon United 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daegu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 44% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Incheon United and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Incheon United 2W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.80) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.96x) against Incheon United's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.35
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.36
0.99
Daegu FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.99 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Incheon United come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 29D 20L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.30 PPG from 76 outings (23W 30D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Incheon United against 1.30 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Incheon United's home form reads 14W 15D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.03 points per game from 38 outings (8W 15D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 27W 29D 20L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daegu FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.50 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Incheon United
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 47%, Daegu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Incheon United) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 32% of games; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Incheon United's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Incheon United vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Incheon United's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Incheon United and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.37 xG and Daegu FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.80 / defence 0.89 against Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 44% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 26%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.45 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.