Gwangju FC 0-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Wednesday 19 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.73 xG and Jeju United FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.714 / defence 1.059 | Jeju United FC attack 0.861 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.108. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Gwangju FC games / 16 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 23% | Draw 38% | Jeju United FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 4.35 | Draw 2.63 | Jeju United FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gwangju FC's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 23% | Draw 38% | Jeju United FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Gwangju FC 0.73 / Jeju United FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.714 / def 1.059 | Jeju United FC attack 0.861 / def 1.056 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Jeju United FC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Wednesday 19 May 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 23% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 39% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.71x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.86x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
23%
4.28
38%
2.65
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
1.74
1.01
Jeju United FC xG
4.28
23%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.01 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 6, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gwangju FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 0-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.73 xG and Jeju United FC 1.01 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.06 against Jeju United FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 23% | Draw 38% | Jeju United FC 39%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.