Gangwon FC 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Gangneung Stadium to take on Gangwon FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 May 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Gangneung Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gangwon FC at 1.30 PPG versus Suwon Bluewings's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Gangwon FC have won 1, Suwon Bluewings 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Suwon Bluewings 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 45% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.24 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.952 / defence 1.051 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.724 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.099. Data: 47 Gangwon FC games / 47 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 25%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon Bluewings 4.00. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Gangwon FC 1.24 / Suwon Bluewings 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.952 / def 1.051 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.724 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Suwon Bluewings xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 46% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (4 meetings): Gangwon FC 1W | Draws 2 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.42
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.08
0.84
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.84 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC's recent record stands at 11W 13D 14L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.21 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gangwon FC have managed 8W 8D 3L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gangwon FC
5
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 2, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 47%, Suwon Bluewings 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 42% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 32% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Suwon Bluewings finished level at 1-1 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.24 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.84 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 46% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 25%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 45%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.