Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors make the trip to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to face Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.83 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.971 / defence 1.046 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.214 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 0.966. Jeonbuk Motors have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Gangwon FC games / 11 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 25% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.22. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 25% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Gangwon FC 0.83 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.971 / def 1.046 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.214 / def 0.928 | league avg home 0.924 / away 0.966 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Jeonbuk Motors xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 25% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.21x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
25%
3.98
30%
3.39
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.06
1.23
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.23 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-3 on 13 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
2
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 6, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.83 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.23 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.21 / defence 0.93, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 25% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.