Gangwon FC 2-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gangwon FC host Gwangju FC at Gangneung Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gangwon FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Gangneung Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Gangwon FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gangwon FC, 2 for Gwangju FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–4 with Gwangju FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 59% versus Gwangju FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gangwon FC 38% | Gwangju FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 2.01 xG and Gwangju FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.289 / defence 1.225 | Gwangju FC attack 1.029 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.166. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Gangwon FC games / 53 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 50% | Draw 22% | Gwangju FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Gwangju FC 3.57. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Gwangju FC lead the H2H ledger, but Gangwon FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Gwangju FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 50% | Draw 22% | Gwangju FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Gangwon FC 2.01 / Gwangju FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.289 / def 1.225 | Gwangju FC attack 1.029 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Gwangju FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 50% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (3 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 1 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.29) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
50%
1.99
22%
4.64
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.48
1.47
Gwangju FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
4%
26.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.47 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gangwon FC come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 21D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 58 outings (24W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.24 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gangwon FC's home form reads 9W 10D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 17W 21D 20L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 24W 12D 22L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.32 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 6, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gwangju FC 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gangwon FC at 71%, Gwangju FC at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gangwon FC) and 39% (Gwangju FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Gangwon FC's games and 61% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 39% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Gwangju FC 2-0 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 2.01 xG and Gwangju FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gwangju FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.29 / defence 1.23 against Gwangju FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 50% | Draw 22% | Gwangju FC 28%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 38%, Gwangju FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.24 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.