FC Seoul 1-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Jeju United FC travel to Seoul World Cup Stadium to take on FC Seoul. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Seoul World Cup Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Seoul World Cup Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Seoul 2.10 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 50% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 45% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 0.94 xG and Jeju United FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.009 / defence 1.046 | Jeju United FC attack 1.063 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 0.951. Data: 38 FC Seoul games / 38 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 32% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Jeju United FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Jeju United FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 32% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG FC Seoul 0.94 / Jeju United FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.009 / def 1.046 | Jeju United FC attack 1.063 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.071 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jeju United FC xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 32% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC Seoul and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (1.01) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
32%
3.16
31%
3.25
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.00
1.06
Jeju United FC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.3 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.06 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 10L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.24 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 5W 9D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeju United FC's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.11 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Seoul's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Seoul
1
Draws
5
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 42%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Seoul) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 37%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 42% of games; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Seoul's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out FC Seoul 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.94 xG and Jeju United FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Jeju United FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 32% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 38%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 45%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.24 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.