FC Seoul 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 40%, yet in-form FC Seoul provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Jeju United FC travel to Seoul World Cup Stadium to take on FC Seoul. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 18 August 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Seoul World Cup Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
FC Seoul are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 46% versus Jeju United FC 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 41% | Jeju United FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 0.69 xG and Jeju United FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.687 / defence 1.064 | Jeju United FC attack 0.786 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.156. FC Seoul's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 FC Seoul games / 23 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 25% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Jeju United FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — FC Seoul's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Seoul (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 30% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 25% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG FC Seoul 0.69 / Jeju United FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.687 / def 1.064 | Jeju United FC attack 0.786 / def 1.023 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Jeju United FC xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 25% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both FC Seoul and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (0.69) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
25%
4.02
35%
2.87
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
1.66
0.97
Jeju United FC xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 18.4 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.97 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 6W 6D 10L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 12D 6L across 22 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Seoul on 1.09 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 1W 7D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Seoul are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 73%.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 4W 12D 6L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Jeju United FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.10 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Seoul's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Seoul
1
Draws
5
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 4, Jeju United FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 30%, Jeju United FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 40% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 50%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 50% of games; Jeju United FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 40% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.69 xG and Jeju United FC 0.97 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Jeju United FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 25% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 40%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 41%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.09 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.