FC Anyang 4-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 3W 4D 3L at Anyang Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Anyang, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 59% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 53% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.22 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.921 / defence 0.998 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.103 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.240. Data: 32 FC Anyang games / 65 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Anyang 1.22 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.921 / def 0.998 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.103 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Anyang 4 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 32% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): FC Anyang 0W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.92) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (1.10x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 32/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
32%
3.09
28%
3.52
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.58
1.36
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.36 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 6D 15L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 16W 7D 9L from 32 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Anyang.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Anyang are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 11W 6D 15L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.47 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have FC Anyang or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won 4-1 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when FC Anyang 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 53%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Anyang) and 67% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 33% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Anyang's games and 67% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC Anyang's matches and 67% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Anyang run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.22 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 32% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 53%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with FC Anyang winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.