Daejeon Citizen 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daejeon Hanbat Stadium plays host to Daejeon Citizen versus Gangwon FC in K League 1, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Wednesday 8 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.10 xG and Gangwon FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gangwon FC attack 0.714 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.264. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Daejeon Citizen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Daejeon Citizen games / 33 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 37% | Draw 30% | Gangwon FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Gangwon FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Daejeon Hanbat Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 37% | Draw 30% | Gangwon FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.10 / Gangwon FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gangwon FC attack 0.714 / def 1.384 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gangwon FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 8 December 2021 at Daejeon Hanbat Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Daejeon Citizen 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon Hanbat Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Gangwon FC away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.85) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.71x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 0/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.38
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.14
1.04
Gangwon FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.04 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daejeon Citizen
6
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Daejeon Hanbat Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.10 xG and Gangwon FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gangwon FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.38, drawn from 0/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 37% | Draw 30% | Gangwon FC 34%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.