Daegu FC 0-2 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Arena plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Arena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Suwon Bluewings (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Daegu FC 0W, Suwon Bluewings 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Suwon Bluewings 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 44% | Suwon Bluewings 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.09 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.977 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.774 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.179. Data: 32 Daegu FC games / 32 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Suwon Bluewings 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Suwon Bluewings 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 40% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Daegu FC 1.09 / Suwon Bluewings 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.009 / def 0.977 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.774 / def 1.136 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Suwon Bluewings xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC 0 - 2 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 40% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (1 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.77x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.24
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.98
0.89
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.89 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 13W 10D 9L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 11W 9D 12L from 32 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.31 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (7W 6D 2L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.22 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 10D 9L in their last 32 games (1.53 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 60%, Suwon Bluewings 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daegu FC) and 47% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 47%; Suwon Bluewings in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 33% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daegu FC's recent games and 47% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Suwon Bluewings cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Daegu FC 0-2 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.09 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.89 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 40% | Draw 31% | Suwon Bluewings 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 44%, Suwon Bluewings 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.53 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.