Daegu FC 0-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Seongnam FC meet at DGB Arena in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 6 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.98 xG and Seongnam FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.014 / defence 1.450 | Seongnam FC attack 0.731 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.081. Data: 7 Daegu FC games / 7 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 29% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Seongnam FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Seongnam FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 29% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Daegu FC 0.98 / Seongnam FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.014 / def 1.450 | Seongnam FC attack 0.731 / def 1.028 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Seongnam FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 6 April 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 29% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Daegu FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.01) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.73x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
29%
3.43
33%
2.99
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Seongnam FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.15 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Seongnam FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Seongnam FC finished level at 0-0 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.98 xG and Seongnam FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Seongnam FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.45 against Seongnam FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 29% | Draw 33% | Seongnam FC 37%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.