Daegu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Arena in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.94 xG and Jeju United FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.890 / defence 1.636 | Jeju United FC attack 0.749 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 0.794. Data: 3 Daegu FC games / 3 Jeju United FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Jeju United FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Daegu FC 0.94 / Jeju United FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.890 / def 1.636 | Jeju United FC attack 0.749 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.050 / away 0.794 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Jeju United FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 13 March 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 33% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.89) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.75x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
33%
3.01
32%
3.15
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.97
Jeju United FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.97 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Daegu FC and Jeju United FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.94 xG and Jeju United FC 0.97 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.64 against Jeju United FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 35%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.