Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Bucheon Stadium to take on Bucheon FC 1995. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bucheon FC 1995's home record at Bucheon Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Bucheon FC 1995) versus 1.30 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bucheon FC 1995, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 45% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bucheon FC 1995 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.01 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.892 / defence 1.352 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.746 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.323. Data: 29 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 62 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 25% | Draw 34% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Bucheon FC 1995 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 25% | Draw 34% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.01 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.892 / def 1.352 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.746 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 25% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 0W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
25%
3.94
34%
2.98
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.94
25%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.33 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 11D 12L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (5W 18D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bucheon FC 1995 on 1.13 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bucheon FC 1995's home form reads 3W 7D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (4W 8D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 18D 8L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 1.00 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bucheon FC 1995's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bucheon FC 1995) and 31% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 38% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 56% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 31% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Bucheon FC 1995 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bucheon FC 1995.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.01 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.89 / defence 1.35 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.75 / defence 0.95, drawn from 29/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 25% | Draw 34% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 45%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bucheon FC 1995 1.13 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Bucheon FC 1995 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.