Bucheon FC 1995 1-3 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Bucheon FC 1995 welcome FC Seoul to Bucheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 July 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Betting Odds
The market has installed FC Seoul as the clear favourite — Bucheon FC 1995 4.69 (implied 20%), Draw 3.48 (27%), FC Seoul 1.74 (implied 53%).
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bucheon FC 1995 stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bucheon FC 1995's home record at Bucheon Stadium: 2W 4D 3L from 9 K League 1 appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Seoul — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Seoul are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bucheon FC 1995, 1 for FC Seoul and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with FC Seoul winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bucheon FC 1995 in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
FC Seoul in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 37% versus FC Seoul 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bucheon FC 1995 32% | FC Seoul 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and FC Seoul 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.810 / defence 0.994 | FC Seoul attack 1.185 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.195. Data: 17 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 50 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 21% | Draw 30% | FC Seoul 49%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | FC Seoul 2.04. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.74 (fair-implied 53% vs Poisson 49%). With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game. The model sees Under 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 39% versus the market's fair-implied 56% (priced at 1.69).
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bucheon FC 1995 33% | FC Seoul 80%. The model sees BTTS No as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 44% versus the market's fair-implied 53% (priced at 1.73).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 21% | Draw 30% | FC Seoul 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 / FC Seoul 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.810 / def 0.994 | FC Seoul attack 1.185 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Bucheon FC 1995 4.69 (impl 20%) | Draw 3.48 (impl 27%) | FC Seoul 1.74 (impl 53%) • Market favourite: FC Seoul at 1.74 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to FC Seoul — Poisson 49% vs market implied 53% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 2.12 (impl 47%) / Under 2.5 1.69 (impl 59%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 39% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.98 (impl 51%) / No 1.73 (impl 58%) | Poisson BTTS probability 44%
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC Seoul xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 19 July 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul?
Bucheon FC 1995 1 - 3 FC Seoul.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 21% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul?
Record (1 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 0W | Draws 0 | FC Seoul 1W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul?
1X2 market: Bucheon FC 1995 4.69 (impl 20%) | Draw 3.48 (impl 27%) | FC Seoul 1.74 (impl 53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
21%
4.77
30%
3.37
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.24
1.41
FC Seoul xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.46
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.41 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 7D 6L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Seoul carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Bucheon FC 1995 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bucheon FC 1995's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 2.44 points per game from 9 outings (7W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — FC Seoul travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Seoul come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.58 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; FC Seoul in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Seoul away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Seoul have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
0
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul?
From 3 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, FC Seoul have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when FC Seoul 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 33%, FC Seoul 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Bucheon FC 1995) and 67% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Bucheon FC 1995's games and 78% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 67% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Bucheon FC 1995 have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bucheon FC 1995.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Bucheon FC 1995 1-3 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and FC Seoul 1.41 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against FC Seoul attack 1.19 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 21% | Draw 30% | FC Seoul 49%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 32%, FC Seoul 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Seoul arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bucheon FC 1995 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.