NEOM 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEOM host Al Shabab at King Khalid Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026 at 17:50 UTC.
Form Guide
NEOM — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
NEOM's home record at King Khalid Sports City: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NEOM 1.30 PPG, Al Shabab 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NEOM have won 0, Al Shabab 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NEOM in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 64% and Al Shabab 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 55% | Al Shabab 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.06 xG and Al Shabab 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.772 / defence 1.041 | Al Shabab attack 0.939 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.446. NEOM's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 NEOM games / 65 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 28% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 45%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Al Shabab 2.22. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 50% | Al Shabab 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 17:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 28% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG NEOM 1.06 / Al Shabab 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.772 / def 1.041 | Al Shabab attack 0.939 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al Shabab xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al Shabab kick off?
NEOM vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:50 on Monday 11 May 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al Shabab?
NEOM 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is NEOM vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al Shabab part of?
NEOM vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 28% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEOM and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are NEOM and Al Shabab in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
NEOM's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al Shabab's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.58
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.47
1.41
Al Shabab xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for NEOM and 1.41 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 8D 12L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Al Shabab's form line: 7W 11D 13L from 31 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEOM on 1.32 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 7D 6L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NEOM are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.29 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Current Season
Al Shabab
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al Shabab away?
NEOM's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.20 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
NEOM
0
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al Shabab?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 1, Al Shabab have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when NEOM 2-1 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 60%, Al Shabab 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NEOM) and 27% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of NEOM's recent matches and 47% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEOM vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of NEOM's recent games and 27% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEOM and Al Shabab tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Al Shabab 2-1 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.06 xG and Al Shabab 1.41 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. NEOM beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Al Shabab attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 28% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 45%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual NEOM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 55%, Al Shabab 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 1.32 PPG, Al Shabab 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.