NEOM 1-2 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Khalid Sports City plays host to NEOM versus Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NEOM (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's home record at King Khalid Sports City: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Kholood have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Kholood have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for NEOM, 1.00 for Al Kholood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: NEOM 1W, Al Kholood 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with NEOM winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
NEOM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 61% versus Al Kholood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 52% | Al Kholood 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.20 xG and Al Kholood 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.780 / defence 1.093 | Al Kholood attack 1.145 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. NEOM's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 NEOM games / 57 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 26% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 49%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al Kholood 2.04. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 60% | Al Kholood 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 26% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG NEOM 1.20 / Al Kholood 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.780 / def 1.093 | Al Kholood attack 1.145 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Kholood xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al Kholood kick off?
NEOM vs Al Kholood kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al Kholood?
NEOM 1 - 2 Al Kholood.
Where is NEOM vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al Kholood part of?
NEOM vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 26% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NEOM and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al Kholood?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 1W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al Kholood in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NEOM's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (1.15x) against NEOM's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
26%
3.92
25%
3.97
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.93
1.73
Al Kholood xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
22.17
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for NEOM and 1.73 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEOM's recent record stands at 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 15L across 23 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEOM by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEOM have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 4W 1D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEOM are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.30 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 7W 1D 15L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al Kholood away?
NEOM's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
NEOM
0
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al Kholood?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 1, Al Kholood have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEOM 1-2 Al Kholood.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 54%, Al Kholood 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for NEOM and 64% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of NEOM's recent matches and 46% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEOM vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of NEOM's matches and 64% of Al Kholood's.
Do NEOM and Al Kholood tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out NEOM 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat NEOM 1-2 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.20 xG and Al Kholood 1.73 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Al Kholood attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 26% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 49%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 52%, Al Kholood 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.