NEOM 4-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEOM at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Khalid Sport City Stadium plays host to NEOM versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:20 UTC.
Current Form
NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEOM's home record at King Khalid Sport City Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in NEOM's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: NEOM 0W, Al-Fateh 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEOM 58% versus Al-Fateh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 50% | Al-Fateh 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.53 xG and Al-Fateh 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 1.099 / defence 0.914 | Al-Fateh attack 0.659 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.357. Data: 40 NEOM games / 40 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 51% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 17%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fateh 5.88. NEOM hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEOM are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEOM if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 60% | Al-Fateh 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Khalid Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 51% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG NEOM 1.53 / Al-Fateh 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 1.099 / def 0.914 | Al-Fateh attack 0.659 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: NEOM (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al-Fateh xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Fateh kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:20 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
NEOM 4 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sport City Stadium.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Fateh part of?
NEOM vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 51% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEOM and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): NEOM 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Fateh in?
NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEOM's attack at 1.10x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.66x) against NEOM's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
51%
1.96
32%
3.11
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.34
0.82
Al-Fateh xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
27.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for NEOM and 0.82 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, NEOM have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 16W 9D 15L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 9W 13D 18L from 40 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, NEOM are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NEOM have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 8D 10L from 20 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEOM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NEOM are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.08 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 16W 9D 15L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 18L in their last 40 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Fateh away?
NEOM's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEOM have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
NEOM
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Fateh?
From 3 meetings on record, NEOM have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when NEOM 4-2 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 60%, Al-Fateh 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NEOM) and 35% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of NEOM's games and 55% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of NEOM's recent games and 35% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEOM and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEOM cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEOM beat Al-Fateh 4-2 at King Khalid Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.53 xG and Al-Fateh 0.82 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. NEOM beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Al-Fateh attack 0.66 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 51% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 17%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 50%, Al-Fateh 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. NEOM (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.