Damac 1-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al-Raed travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 January 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.50 PPG, Al-Raed 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Damac, 0 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Raed 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 42% | Al-Raed 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 0.99 xG and Al-Raed 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.784 / defence 0.798 | Al-Raed attack 0.985 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.136. Damac's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Damac's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Damac games / 41 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Raed 31%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Raed 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Al-Raed 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Raed 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Damac 0.99 / Al-Raed 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.784 / def 0.798 | Al-Raed attack 0.985 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Damac (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Raed xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Raed kick off?
Damac vs Al-Raed kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 5 January 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Damac 1 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Damac vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Raed part of?
Damac vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 37% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Damac and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.13
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Damac xG
Total xG
1.89
0.89
Al-Raed xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Damac and 0.89 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Damac have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 16W 14D 11L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 14W 6D 21L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.51 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (9W 8D 3L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.12 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 14D 11L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 14W 6D 21L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Raed away?
Damac's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.75 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al-Raed have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Raed?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al-Raed 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Damac) and 65% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Raed in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Damac's recent matches and 55% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Damac's recent games and 65% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Raed defy the odds to beat Damac 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Damac 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 0.99 xG and Al-Raed 0.89 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Al-Raed attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 37% | Draw 32% | Al-Raed 31%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Raed win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 42%, Al-Raed 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.51 PPG, Al-Raed 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.