Damac 3-2 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al-Raed travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 12:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Damac are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.20 PPG, Al-Raed 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Damac, 0 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 52% versus Al-Raed 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 38% | Al-Raed 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.39 xG and Al-Raed 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.936 / defence 1.155 | Al-Raed attack 0.776 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.184. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Damac games / 21 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Raed 27%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Raed 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Al-Raed 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 12:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Raed 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Damac 1.39 / Al-Raed 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.936 / def 1.155 | Al-Raed attack 0.776 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Damac (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Raed xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Raed kick off?
Damac vs Al-Raed kicked off at 12:15 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Damac 3 - 2 Al-Raed.
Where is Damac vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Raed part of?
Damac vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 43% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Damac and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.43
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Damac xG
Total xG
2.45
1.06
Al-Raed xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
7%
14.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Damac and 1.06 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Damac have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 9W 6D 6L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 7W 5D 9L from 21 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.57 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Raed away?
Damac's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.90 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al-Raed have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Raed?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Damac and 60% for Al-Raed.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Raed in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Damac's recent matches and 50% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Damac's recent games and 60% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Raed 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Raed 3-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.39 xG and Al-Raed 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Al-Raed attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Raed 27%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 38%, Al-Raed 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.57 PPG, Al-Raed 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.