Damac 0-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Najma meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 13:40 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 2W 2D 6L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Najma have collected 0.00 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Najma have posted 0W 0D 4L from 4 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Damac have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Najma in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Najma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 100% and Al Najma 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al Najma 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.83 xG and Al Najma 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.799 / defence 1.055 | Al Najma attack 0.742 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.539. Damac's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Damac games / 8 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 51% | Draw 24% | Al Najma 24%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Al Najma 4.17. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al Najma 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 51% | Draw 24% | Al Najma 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Damac 1.83 / Al Najma 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.799 / def 1.055 | Al Najma attack 0.742 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Damac (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Najma xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Najma kick off?
Damac vs Al Najma kicked off at 13:40 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Najma?
Damac 0 - 0 Al Najma.
Where is Damac vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Najma part of?
Damac vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 51% chance of winning, Al Najma a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Damac and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Najma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Damac and Al Najma in?
Damac (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-8L in 8 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.80x the league average against Al Najma's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Najma's attack (0.74x) against Damac's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.12
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Damac xG
Total xG
3.04
1.21
Al Najma xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
4%
25.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Damac and 1.21 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Najma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 0W 4D 4L from 8 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Najma, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 8L across 8 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Najma heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Najma's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.88 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Najma in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 8L in their last 8 (0.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Najma away?
Damac's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 0.50 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Damac
1
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Najma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Al Najma 1-3 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Najma?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Damac, 100% for Al Najma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Damac and 100% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Damac's games and 100% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Damac's matches and 100% of Al Najma's.
Do Damac and Al Najma tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Damac's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al Najma finished level at 0-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.83 xG and Al Najma 1.21 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Damac fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Najma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Al Najma attack 0.74 / defence 1.49, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 51% | Draw 24% | Al Najma 24%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al Najma 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Najma's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.