Damac 2-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Damac face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Damac welcome Al-Fateh to Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Damac have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Damac have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al-Fateh away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Damac) versus 0.90 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Damac 1–1 Al-Fateh — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 54% versus Al-Fateh 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Fateh 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.982 / defence 1.116 | Al-Fateh attack 1.149 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.403. Data: built from Damac's last 33 games and Al-Fateh's last 33.
Result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 50%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.81 | Draw 4.24 | Al-Fateh 1.99. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.24 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 4 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Damac 1.24 / Al-Fateh 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.982 / def 1.116 | Al-Fateh attack 1.149 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Al-Fateh xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fateh part of?
Damac vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 4) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 26% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Damac and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 33 games and Al-Fateh's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
26%
3.81
24%
4.24
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Damac xG
Total xG
3.04
1.80
Al-Fateh xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
4%
23.02
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Damac and 1.80 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac's recent record stands at 9W 11D 13L from 33 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 14L across 33 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Damac have managed 5W 6D 5L from their last 16 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 8W 1D 7L across their last 16 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.58 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Damac (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Damac vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 14W 5D 14L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 26 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won Damac 0-3 Al-Fateh.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
6
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 February 2026: Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Damac and 81% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Fateh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Damac's matches and 81% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Damac and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Damac's recent matches and 81% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Damac and Al-Fateh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.24 xG and Al-Fateh 1.80 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 50%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Fateh 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.15 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.