Damac 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Damac (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Damac's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Ettifaq away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Damac's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Damac 1–3 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 51% | Al-Ettifaq 39%). Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Damac recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.134 / defence 0.897 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.829 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.485. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.774, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Damac's projected output down. Data: built from Damac's last 51 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 51.
Result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.51 | Draw 3.27 | Al-Ettifaq 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Damac 1.32 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.134 / def 0.897 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.829 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Damac 0 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Damac and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.13) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.83x) against Damac's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 51 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.27
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Damac xG
Total xG
2.42
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Damac and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 16D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (17W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Damac against 1.27 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 10W 9D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.02 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Damac's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ettifaq have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Damac 0-3 Al-Ettifaq on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
2
Draws
6
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Damac) and 36% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 32%; Al-Ettifaq in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Damac's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Damac's recent games and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Damac's recent matches and 64% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 0-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Damac fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 51%, Al-Ettifaq 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.31 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.