Damac 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 21 February 2025 at 14:20 UK time.
Form Guide
Damac — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Damac have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Damac, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Damac 2–4 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 59% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Damac surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Al-Ahli Jeddah have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.055 / defence 1.069 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.007 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.368. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Damac's projected output down. Data: built from Damac's last 54 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 54.
Result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.22 | Draw 3.90 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Damac 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 14:20 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Damac 1.21 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.055 / def 1.069 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.007 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 14:20 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Damac 0 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 54 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
31%
3.22
26%
3.90
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Damac xG
Total xG
2.68
1.47
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Damac and 1.47 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Damac have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 17D 21L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 31W 10D 13L from 54 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 10D 7L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 5D 9L from their last 27 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.91 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 31W 10D 13L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Damac.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 59%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Damac) and 59% (Al-Ahli Jeddah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Damac have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Damac's games and 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Damac's matches and 59% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Damac and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Damac's recent matches and 74% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 0-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Damac fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.01 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.