Al Taee 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taee host Al-Nassr at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 11:25 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taee — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taee at 1.00 PPG versus Al-Nassr's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taee register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Nassr in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al Taee trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 36% versus Al-Nassr 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 54% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.07 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.897 / defence 1.330 | Al-Nassr attack 1.027 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.022. Data: 12 Al Taee games / 11 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al Taee 60% | Al-Nassr 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 11:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taee 1.07 / Al-Nassr 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.897 / def 1.330 | Al-Nassr attack 1.027 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 11:25 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taee 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 29% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Nassr in?
Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taee's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
29%
3.48
27%
3.73
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.46
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.40 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 1D 7L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taee's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.64 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Nassr runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Al-Nassr won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Taee
0
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Al-Nassr 5-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taee at 60%, Al-Nassr at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Taee and 60% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Taee's games and 80% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Taee's matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.07 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.90 / defence 1.33 against Al-Nassr attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 29% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 44%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 54%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Al Taee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.