Al Taee 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al-Fateh travel to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to take on Al Taee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 11:20 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 1W 0D 3L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al-Fateh's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Taee's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Taee 40% | Al-Fateh 30%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 60% | Al-Fateh 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.913 / defence 1.482 | Al-Fateh attack 0.697 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.033. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Al Taee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Al Taee games / 10 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fateh 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fateh (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Taee 75% | Al-Fateh 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 11:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Taee 1.29 / Al-Fateh 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.913 / def 1.482 | Al-Fateh attack 0.697 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Fateh xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 11:20 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taee 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
42%
2.41
28%
3.60
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.35
1.07
Al-Fateh xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.07 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee's recent record stands at 2W 1D 7L from 10 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fateh by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taee heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fateh's season.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 30%.
Defensively: Al-Fateh in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taee's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 0.75 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Fateh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taee have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al Taee
0
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 75%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Taee and 50% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Taee's games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Taee's matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taee edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.07 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.91 / defence 1.48 against Al-Fateh attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fateh 31%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 60%, Al-Fateh 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Al Taee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.