Al Taawon 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Taawon) versus 1.30 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 3–2 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 71% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Raed 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Al-Raed 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.924 / defence 1.084 | Al-Raed attack 0.990 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.239. Data: 55 Al Taawon games / 55 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Raed 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Taawon 1.50 / Al-Raed 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.924 / def 1.084 | Al-Raed attack 0.990 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Raed xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Al Taawon 2 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 41% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.96
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.83
1.33
Al-Raed xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.33 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 20D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (18W 11D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.35 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Taawon's home form reads 8W 10D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.22 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 18W 20D 17L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 18W 11D 26L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 67%, Al-Raed 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 70% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Taawon's games and 52% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al Taawon's matches and 70% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Raed 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.50 xG and Al-Raed 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Al-Raed attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 41% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 33%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al-Raed 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.35 PPG, Al-Raed 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.