Al Taawon 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 21 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 6W 2D 2L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Raed 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Raed 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.62 xG and Al-Raed 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.244 / defence 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.756 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.439. Data: 36 Al Taawon games / 36 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 4.55. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Taawon 80% | Al-Raed 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taawon 1.62 / Al-Raed 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.244 / def 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.756 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Raed xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Al Taawon 2 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 54% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taawon 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.24x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.04
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.56
0.94
Al-Raed xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
23.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.94 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon come into this having played 36 games, going 20W 8D 8L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.06 PPG from 36 outings (10W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Taawon's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 20W 8D 8L in their last 36 games (1.89 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 10W 8D 18L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.82 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Raed?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 71%, Al-Raed 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Taawon) and 65% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Taawon's games and 53% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al Taawon's matches and 65% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Raed 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.62 xG and Al-Raed 0.94 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Al-Raed attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 22%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 50%, Al-Raed 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.