Al Taawon 1-2 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al Kholood at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Kholood's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.10 PPG versus Al Kholood's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al Kholood and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 51% versus Al Kholood 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 41% | Al Kholood 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.15 xG and Al Kholood 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.066 / defence 0.964 | Al Kholood attack 0.987 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.438. Al Kholood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Al Taawon games / 62 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Al Kholood 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Taawon 2.15 / Al Kholood 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.066 / def 0.964 | Al Kholood attack 0.987 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al Kholood xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Kholood kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 55% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 1 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Kholood in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.83
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.52
1.37
Al Kholood xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
12%
8.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
3%
36.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.37 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 25W 16D 20L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood's form line: 20W 6D 35L from 61 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 9W 3D 18L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.28 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Kholood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 25W 16D 20L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 20W 6D 35L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.70 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Kholood runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Kholood go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
1
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Kholood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-2 Al Taawon.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 53%, Al Kholood 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Taawon) and 63% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Taawon's games and 60% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Taawon's recent games and 63% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Taawon 1-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.15 xG and Al Kholood 1.37 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Al Kholood attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 24%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 41%, Al Kholood 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.