Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 54%, yet in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 20 August 2021 at 18:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Pro League outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 2.00 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.961 / defence 1.150 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 0.841. Data: 1 Al Taawon games / 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Taawon 1.53 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.961 / def 1.150 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.386 / away 0.841 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:50 on Friday 20 August 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taawon 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 54% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (0.85x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.88
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.35
0.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
4%
23.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.82 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Al Taawon's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al Taawon or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 0% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Taawon's recent games and 0% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hilal Saudi FC defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 1-2 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 20%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 100%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.