Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 November 2021 at 13:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al Taawon, 1.40 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Fayha in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 82% and Al-Fayha 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 73% | Al-Fayha 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.36 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.971 / defence 1.489 | Al-Fayha attack 0.755 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.054. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al Taawon games / 11 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al-Fayha 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 1.36 / Al-Fayha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.971 / def 1.489 | Al-Fayha attack 0.755 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 13:50 on Friday 26 November 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 41% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.76
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.55
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.19 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.09 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Taawon's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 0.80 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Al Taawon, 60% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Taawon and 60% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al Taawon's games and 60% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Taawon's matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 13, as Al Taawon and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.36 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 1.49 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 33%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 73%, Al-Fayha 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.