Al Taawon 1-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Taawon face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawon Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon in Pro League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taawon's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 1.80 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Fateh 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Al Taawon 1–1 Al-Fateh — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al-Fateh 60%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.68 xG and Al-Fateh 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.083 / defence 0.857 | Al-Fateh attack 0.962 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.351. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 47 games and Al-Fateh's last 47.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.00 | Draw 3.96 | Al-Fateh 4.07. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Al Taawon 1.68 / Al-Fateh 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.083 / def 0.857 | Al-Fateh attack 0.962 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 1 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 50% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 47 games and Al-Fateh's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.96
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.80
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.11 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 26W 11D 10L from 47 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 19L across 47 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 12W 6D 5L from their last 23 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 11W 3D 9L across their last 23 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.66 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 26W 11D 10L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 20W 8D 19L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.83 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won Al-Fateh 2-5 Al Taawon.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
3
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Taawon at 70%, Al-Fateh at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al Taawon and 78% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taawon's games and 61% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Taawon's matches and 78% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 83% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Taawon 1-3 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.68 xG and Al-Fateh 1.11 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fateh attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 25%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al-Fateh 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.